Gemini Receives CFTC Approval: A New Era for Forecast Markets in the US

New York, December 11, 2025 – In a dramatic turn of events that marks a decisive step toward the integration of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance, the Gemini exchange has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch regulated prediction markets in the United States. The announcement, made public on December 10, comes after a five-year wait and positions Gemini as the first crypto exchange to officially enter this emerging sector, poised to compete with giants like Kalshi and Polymarket.

An Approval Long-Awaited

Gemini Titan, LLC, an affiliate of Gemini Space Station, Inc. (listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker GEMI), has received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC. This authorization allows Gemini to offer "event contracts", contracts based on simple yes/no questions about future events, directly to US customers. The license application dates back to March 10, 2020, and the review process took nearly five years, a timeframe that reflects the regulatory complexity of the industry.

"This approval marks the culmination of a five-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini," said Tyler Winklevoss, CEO and co-founder of the platform. Gemini's prediction markets will focus on objectively measurable events, such as "Will Bitcoin close the year above $200,000?" or specific regulatory outcomes, allowing users to bet in US dollars on financial predictions and more.

Gemini: From Crypto Spot to Regulated Derivatives

Founded in 2014 by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, known for their legal battle against Facebook and their pioneering role in the crypto space, Gemini has established itself as one of the most secure and compliant exchanges. With a focus on transparency and innovation, the platform has already expanded its services beyond simple cryptocurrency spot trading to include staking and institutional custody.

Entering prediction markets represents a strategic expansion. These markets, often referred to as "the futures of the real world," allow investors to speculate on the probabilities of future events, providing valuable data for analysts and policymakers. Gemini plans to offer binary options contracts on topics such as commodity prices, Federal Reserve decisions, economic data releases, and, of course, cryptocurrency trends. In the future, the offering could extend to cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts, accessible via web and mobile apps.

The news had an immediate impact on markets: Gemini (GEMI) shares jumped 15% in after-hours trading, reaching highs of 14% during the session, reflecting investor enthusiasm for this regulated move.

The Context of Prediction Markets in the US

Prediction markets are nothing new, but CFTC regulation is bringing them back onshore after years of offshore exile. Platforms like Polymarket, which received the green light from the CFTC last month after being forced to operate offshore starting in 2022, have demonstrated the potential of this sector. Kalshi, another key player, has already offered markets on elections and sports, generating billions in volume.

For Gemini, this approval comes at an opportune time: the crypto market is experiencing a post-US election resurgence, with Bitcoin approaching $90,000. Prediction markets could serve as a bridge between retail and institutional investors, offering tools for hedging and speculating on real financial risks. However, the CFTC has emphasized stringent rules to prevent manipulation, ensuring that contracts are based on "non-manipulable" events.

Implications for the Financial Sector

This move is not only a triumph for Gemini, but a signal for the entire crypto ecosystem. As the CFTC continues to clarify its jurisdiction over digital commodities, exchanges like Gemini are evolving from "offshore" platforms to integrated players in the US financial system. Analysts predict that prediction markets could reach an annual volume of hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, attracting hedge funds and institutional traders seeking predictive edge.

Critics, however, warn of risks: these markets could amplify volatility or be used for excessive speculative bets. Gemini, with its reputation for compliance, appears well-positioned to navigate these waters, but success will depend on user adoption and continued innovation.

In conclusion, the CFTC approval for Gemini is more than just a license: it is an endorsement of a future in which predictions on financial markets—crypto and otherwise—become accessible, regulated, and democratic. As 2025 draws to a close, Gemini prepares to launch its platform, promising to redefine how we invest in tomorrow. It remains to be seen whether the Winklevoss twins can turn their predictions into profits, but one thing is certain: the game has changed.